Fever Charts
As commented on previously, NASA ranks 2006 as the fifth warmest year of the last 100. The map above shows how the warming trend was distributed across the globe. The red end of the color spectrum is hotter-than-average. The blue end is cooler-than-average. The Arctic, obviously, is running a very high fever.
The National Climatic Data Center reports that the 2006 average annual temperature for the contiguous U.S. was the warmest on record -- at 2.2 degrees Fahrenheit above the 20th Century mean.
8 Comments:
I live in Texas and 2006 was actually a bit cooler and wetter than what we usually have (at least in my area) .. I thought 1998 was by far the worst I have ever seen. Are their facts an average of temps over the entire state? I am curious as to how they get the results (not disputing, just wondering). 1998 convinced me there is global warming.
What I find relevant to 2006 in Texas on the NCDC page is this:
Spring (March-May) temperatures were 8th warmest for the nation with much above average to record warmest temperatures across the central third of the nation. Both Texas and Oklahoma were record warmest during this period, which exacerbated existing drought conditions in this region.
My understanding is that temperatures are average across the entire year for each state and collected from various weather stations, all of which are in rural settings to correct for things like the so-called 'heat island' effect associated with cities.
1998 was an El Nino year, which no doubt accounted for some of the anomalous weather that year. The NCDC reports that: The 2006 average annual temperature for the contiguous U.S. was the warmest on record and nearly identical to the record set in 1998.
We are in El Nino again, which has scientists predicting another very warm (and possibly the warmest) year.
That explains it some.. I was really thinking about the summer.. the rest of the year was fairly warmer than usual.. I remember in 1998 seeing a 117 degree temp in the shade (100- 102 was considered normal)..it was insane..that was also the year that we moved into our first home and learned the joys of xeriscaping.. it would be nice to see a feature done on xeriscaping.. it's really not as boring as people might initially believe and is much more environmentally friendly (and easier) than having a giant lawn
Our goal is to keep the global average temperature below 2°C in order to keep us from crossing the threshold of runaway global warming.
From the map, it does look like the areas that need to be kept cool the most, e.g. the arctic (positive feedback from melting permafrost methane release and reduced albedo), are already experiencing rises of this order.
When the scientists specified 2°C, had they taken it into account?
Great question. I'm not really qualified to answer but, with that caveat, I'll take a stab at it anyway. Yup, the goal is to keep global average warming to within 2 degrees C of preindustrial averages. I have to assume that goal accounts for higher Arctic temperatures since all the models predicted that changes would be faster and greater in the polar regions. (Antarctic climate behavior seems to be a more complicated picture, with cooling on much of the continent, but rather intense warming on the Antartic Peninsula. Why? Search me.) As to the positive feedbacks you mention -- lower albedo (reflectivity) and methane release from permafrost, my sense is that those are still wildcards in the whole climate scenario. For now, at least, it seems that increased cloud cover is offsetting some of the albedo loss in terms of ice cover. As for methane, I think there's still not complete understanding of the methane cycle and where exactly the sinks are. If someone more educated about this than me wants to chime in, great. As they say, a little knowledge is a dangerous thing. I generally recommend RealClimate (see the links list) as a good place to find authoritative discussion of climate science.
anonymous, I also live in Texas. Our summer, while maybe not as hot as the last few, was woefully inadequate in rainfall. I agree with you that 1998 was the worst in recent memory but having grown up in this state and comparing the last 10 years to the mid 1970's makes it pretty obvious the sumers are at the very least lasting much longer (maybe it was because I was a kid and could tolerate it better then). But our winters have been so short and mild in recent memory that it is alarming. At least as a kid you could count on 2-3 snowfalls every year in my part of the state, now if you get one every 2-3 years you are lucky. It's so messed up. Hell, we don't even have fireflys anymore for the kids to catch like we did as kids.
Is anyone aware of any studies or articles that show maps of ocean incrochment as it rises, with projected dates? Has anyone done a remapping program for google earth? What I want to understand is the impact and cost of moveing ports, transport facilities, and oil refineries inland every twenty years or so ...
DC in CA
funnily enough there was a good link right here last year
How High's the Water, Mama? with a link to the Google Maps mashup
It's only a map and there are no dates, but it's still powerful
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