Long Time Coming

On the eve of the release of the fourth and long-awaited report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, science historian Naomi Oreskes has a piece in the Op-Ed pages of the Washington Post that gives a capsule history of the issue, stressing that various scientists have been "communicating their concerns about global warming to presidents of both parties since the 1960s." For my part, I remember first learning of the idea that emissions from burning fossil fuels could alter the climate while at university in the late 80s. It came as a surprise to learn that the National Academy of Science was already issuing (mild) warnings about "inadvertant weather modification" to the White House as far back as 1966 -- the year I was born. Oreskes suggests we would do well to keep this history in mind amid the reports following tomorrow's release. She writes:

Scientists and journalists focus on novelty, because both are largely about discovery. But from a policy perspective, what matters is not what's new but what's old. What matters are not the details that may have shifted since the last report, or that may shift again in the next one, but that the broad framework is established beyond a reasonable doubt. Although few people realize it, this framework has been in place for nearly half a century, and scientists have been trying to alert us to its importance for almost that long.