The Fuel on the Hill

It seems that many of the most influential magazines in America, (foremost among them, Sierra) are passing judgement on, or at least trying to assess, the potential of biofuels. Opinions vary. Here's a quick roundup for those interested:

• In Rolling Stone, Jeff Goodell called ethanol a scam and "dangerous, delusional bullshit."
• National Geographic did a spread in its October issue that was, as one might expect, more tempered, more middle-of-the-road.
• Over at tech-happy, forward-thinking Wired, Evan Ratliff, concentrating on cellulosic fuels, is more optimistic, as is Tom Yulsman, in Audubon.
• And, now, in the latest Smithsonian, Richard Conniff weighs in.

Having followed the various arguments as best I can, it seems to me that we can probably find broad agreement on a few general statements about biofuels:

• One, corn ethanol is a bum deal and the boom in it is likely to go bust.
• But -- but! -- corn ethanol might well set the stage for the next phase, which is likely to be a different, more sensible feedstock like switchgrass and perhaps ultimately even algae.
• That said, given the fact that biofuels will never be as energy-dense as fossil fuels, it's unlikely they will displace the latter, no matter what form they take. At best, they can reduce our greenhouse gas emissions and our reliance on fossil fuels by some fraction...
• ...which is still a very good thing.

Which brings me back to Richard Conniff, who, after detailing his many misgivings, concludes that:

None of this means we should give up on biofuels. But we need to stop being dazzled by the word and start looking closely at the realities before blind enthusiasm leads us into economic and environmental catastrophes. We also should not let biofuels distract us from other remedies. Conservation and efficiency improvements may not sound as sexy as biofuels. But they are typically cheaper, faster and better at dealing with the combined problems of global warming and uncertain energy supply. They also call on what used to be the defining American traits of thrift and ingenuity.

I would only add this: Conservation alone won't get us there either. This is one challenge where we are going to need to pull out all the stops.