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102 In the Shade:
Florida and a Warming Planet
As we watch the mercury rise on the global thermometer, the question inevitably becomes, What does a warmer world look like? In truth, no one knows for sure, but the projections should make us uneasy. Florida is on the frontlines of climate change. Its crowded shorelines are particularly susceptible as are many of its most notable natural treasures: its fragile coral reef, the Florida Keys, Big Cypress Swamp, and the beleaguered Everglades.
What does a warmer Florida look like? Have a look:
Warming Temperatures | Health Issues | Rising Sea Levels
Ecosystems | Agricultural Impacts | Weather Effects
Warming Temperatures
Florida can expect to get both hotter and more humid.
According to the EPA, summertime temperatures in the state could be expected to increase by 3-4° F by 2100. Increased global temperatures mean greater evaporation and more moisture in the air, so Florida is likely to become more humid as well.
The National Assessment Synthesis Team estimates a heat index increase of 8-15 ° F by 2100. (The heat index – sometimes called "comfort index" – takes into account both heat and humidity).
Health Issues
Warming temperatures could promote the spread of insect-borne diseases such as dengue, malaria, and West Nile Virus in Florida.
Warmer seas would likely lead to an increase in harmful algal blooms, contaminating fish and contributing to cholera outbreaks.
Heat-related deaths would almost certainly multiply.
Rising Sea Levels
Rising sea levels pose a serious threat to Florida.
According to the EPA, sea level along the Florida coastline is likely to rise 18-20 inches by 2100. Some estimates are as high as 30 inches.
The gradual slope of Florida’s shoreline means that even a small vertical rise in sea level can mean a significant horizontal advance of the waterline. Along the west coast of the Florida Peninsula, for example, the average 1.5 millimeter annual rise in sea level converts two meters of dry land into salt marsh each year.
This process could further endanger the Everglades, vast portions of which could be inundated, as well as countless miles of beachfront and vital freshwater aquifers which are likely to be contaminated by saltwater encroachment.
Rising sea levels will make inland areas more susceptible to storm surges during hurricanes and tropical storms.
Ecosystems
The freshwater Everglades are separated from Florida Bay by a mangrove barrier that may not be able to keep pace with sea level rise.
Warming seas could cause further bleaching and dieoff of Florida’s coral reef.
Rising sea levels are already killing trees in Florida, many of which have no retreat in the face of human development. Coastal forest habitat could thus be significantly reduced.
Agricultural Impacts
- The state’s famed citrus crop could be seriously affected by changes in temperature and precipitation patterns. Depending on the latter, competition for water resources could become a decisive factor in the future of Florida’s agriculture.
Weather Effects
- With greater moisture in the atmosphere, climatologists expect more severe weather events. Rainfall is expected to be more intense when it occurs. Likewise, droughts, like the one that led to recent wildfires, may be longer and more severe.
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