Over the past few decades, extreme heat in the greater Los Angeles area has intensified dramatically due to climate change. Los Angeles County now experiences triple the number of extreme heat days compared to the 1960s, and the extremes are only getting hotter. By 2053, Riverside County is expected to have 55 days of triple-digit heat annually – the second highest number for a California county. Extreme heat events are not just inconveniences, they are deadly. California generally sees between 100 and 200 heat-related deaths per year, but these numbers spike during heat waves. As the state experiences the impacts of the climate crisis, the death toll will only increase.
Despite these dangerous trends, many living in the region lack access to adequate, lifesaving cooling. Nearly 1 in 7 households in Southern California Edison's service territory, which contains much of Riverside, San Bernardino, and Los Angeles County, have no air conditioning at all. The situation is even worse in other parts of Los Angeles County, covered by the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power, where nearly 1 in 5 households lack any cooling systems. Among those who do have cooling, many cannot afford to use it when they need it most.
Thankfully, a crucial opportunity for change is approaching. In May, the South Coast Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD) will vote on new standards that would transform how Southern California homes stay cool. These standards would require manufacturers to ensure that a growing percentage of their heating system sales are heat pumps rather than gas furnaces. This market transformation would make heat pumps – which provide some of the most efficient cooling available – more widely accessible and increasingly affordable through competition and economies of scale.
This transition offers multiple benefits. When residents replace their gas furnaces under the new standards, they would automatically gain access to efficient cooling capability, even if they didn't previously have air conditioning. Additionally, as manufacturers scale up heat pump production and competition increases, this efficient cooling technology would become more accessible to all households, including those currently struggling with inefficient air conditioning systems or no cooling at all.
THE HUMAN AND FINANCIAL TOLL OF THE COOLING CRISIS
The human cost of inadequate and unaffordable cooling is devastating. Extreme heat events are the leading cause of weather-related deaths in the United States and reached a 45-year high in 2023 according to analysis of federal data. An investigation by the Los Angeles Times last year found that California chronically undercounts the death toll from extreme heat, with the true figure likely six times higher than the official count. Most of these tragic deaths occur inside people’s homes because of a lack of efficient cooling.
The crisis has become so severe that City of Los Angeles's Climate Emergency Mobilization Office, created to equitably tackle climate solutions, has launched a dedicated #HeatRelief4LA campaign to protect vulnerable communities. This initiative underscores both the urgency of the crisis and its disproportionate impact on households that lack access to cooling.
Extreme heat disproportionately affects low-income communities and communities of color. Research from USC shows that financial hardship is a better predictor for lack of cooling in the Los Angeles area than climate zone. High costs prevent many low-income households and renters who have access to cooling to use it during extreme heat events.
Protecting residents from extreme heat requires both access to cooling and the ability to afford using it. Yet during recent heat waves, Southern California households reported astronomical spikes in their electric bills, forcing impossible choices between staying cool and paying for other essentials. One resident in Antelope Valley reported that her electric bill soared to $900, hundreds more than usual, as persistent extreme heat took hold over southern California. Another resident served by Southern California Edison received a bill for $1,128 in August even while receiving the “discounted rate,” and yet another resident reported a four times increase in their energy bill.
Heat pumps offer a proven solution to this affordability crisis. Based on the Department of Energy's seasonal efficiency testing guidelines, the best air-source heat pump delivers 24% more cooling output than the best air conditioner for the same electric energy input during the cooling season. Heat pumps also provide both heating and cooling in a single system, replacing the need for separate furnaces and air conditioners.
On top of their superior efficiency, federal and state incentives make this the best time for homeowners to install a heat pump. Low- and moderate-income households can access anywhere between $4,000 to $8,000 in federal rebates from the Inflation Reduction Act that can pay for clean, energy-efficient appliances such as heat pumps. Upcoming South Coast Go Zero rebates will provide another $1,500 to $3,000 for heat pump systems. Additionally, the South Coast Air Quality Management District will be working on an online resource where folks can learn how to stack all eligible incentives and rebates to maximize their cost savings.
CONCLUSION
Preparing for a future in which extreme heat is the norm means investing fully into lifesaving, affordable cooling options for Southern California residents. SCAQMD board members cannot nibble around the edges; we need a comprehensive standard that begins a gradual and much-needed transition to heat pumps.
In just a few short months, scorching summer heat will return to southern California. Getting highly efficient heat pumps, with their superior, lifesaving cooling into households, will be critical to protecting the health and safety of the region’s residents from the dangers of extreme heat. The time to start upgrading homes is now.
Take action to tell the SQAQMD board to move forward with these life saving measures without delay.