The ocean may be far away from the Southern Rockies, but there is a growing likelihood that a Super El Niño in the warming Pacific could be impacting the weather here in Colorado later this year. Average air temperatures have been rising over the past few decades, tracking the rise in greenhouse gases accumulating in our atmosphere. More than 90% of warming has ended up in the oceans. If El Niño forecasts hold, the Pacific could be giving some of that back up.
El Niño redistributes heat and moisture across the continent, driving both heat waves and extreme precipitation events. Warm oceans pump moisture into the hydrological system, while heated air also dries out land and exacerbates drought. Extreme heat can be deadly, and those who labor or recreate outdoors are at particular risk.
Warmer oceans everywhere are impacting weather systems, which can also bring more extreme rain events to the Southwest. Intense downpours on dry soils, on fire-scarred landscapes, and on hardened surfaces like towns and pavement lead to damaging and destructive floods, slope failures, and landslides. We saw what this looks like on the Animas River in Pagosa Springs and after the Grizzly Creek Fire in Glenwood Canyon. Science has long indicated that such extreme weather events will be showing up more often in the future. Terms like “100 or 1,000-year event” no longer seem as reliable.
So what is “Resilience”?
Resilience is defined as the ability of a system to resist and respond to change in a manner that supports continued function. Climate resilience is most often thought of as adaptation, which is preparing for the impacts from climate change already here and coming due. This could include retrofitting buildings and hardening infrastructure, protecting and restoring natural spaces, and safeguarding key resources, community assets, and community members.
Climate resilience also includes mitigation to limit the extent of further damage. Without mitigation, adaptation will be impossible. The most obvious mitigations are reducing greenhouse gas emissions, especially by ending the combustion of fossil fuels wherever and as quickly as possible, and by boosting natural systems that store and reduce carbon from the atmosphere.
Our irrigation and water systems and supplies, as well as the health of the watershed, are all put in greater jeopardy due to extreme weather. Resilience measures include more efficient water and irrigation systems, water-wise landscaping, restoring and protecting healthy watersheds, and hardening water storage and delivery infrastructure.
Land, plant, farm, and soil health are affected by rising temperatures and weather disruptions. Resilience measures include public lands and farmland conservation, regenerative agriculture, and increasing green spaces and “pocket parks” for habitat, soil health, and improved water and flood management. Protecting and restoring natural systems is also critical as mitigation, along with supporting systems that remove and store carbon from the atmosphere.
Our energy systems are vulnerable to extreme weather that can damage infrastructure, put pressure on the grid, and spike demand. Resilience measures include boosting efficiencies, expanding distributed power supplies and microgrids, adding community- and dual-use solar, and securing regional energy infrastructure. Reducing fossil energy use and adding more local renewables on- and off-grid remain a top mitigation strategy against further harm from climate change.
A community's assets, residents, and visitors are all put at risk from extreme weather and disasters, including increasing wildfire risk, more heat and extreme temperature swings, intense precipitation as well as deep drought. Being more wildfire and flood-ready, strengthening disaster response, designating cooling/heating centers, and supporting vulnerable and exposed populations are all ways to increase community climate resilience.
Climate disruptions impact supply chains and threaten economic security. A healthy economy increases a community’s ability to resist and respond to climate disruptions. Local food processing, farm implement repair services, and light manufacturing can all support increased rural resilience. Communities can boost local economic resilience by supporting farmers and small businesses, promoting wellness and public health, offering green building incentives, and providing shade, walkability, and efficient public infrastructure.
So, then, what makes for rural climate resilience? My list includes:
- Secure Water Supply
- Healthy Lands & Environment
- Local Energy Sovereignty
- Safe, Ready, and Responsive Community
- Thriving, Fair, and Recirculating Economy
Longtime North Fork resident and activist, Pete Kolbenschlag, is a strategic advisor and rural connector. Crafting authentic collaborations and solutions addressing place-based challenges at the intersection of resilience, conservation, agriculture, energy, and rural economies.