2020 State Primary Recap: A Day for Incumbent Victories

by Jacob Stern, Massachusetts Chapter Deputy Director

About the Massachusetts Chapter's Political Program

The Sierra Club’s Massachusetts political program has grown tremendously in the last three years. Our Chapter went from making endorsements in a handful of local races in 2017 to, in 2020, making 49 endorsements in municipal, state, and federal races. We also created multiple political action committees to deepen our engagement in races and support a highly successful intern program. Finally, we have expanded our volunteer teams who engage in political work from a single team that handles endorsements to three teams, each with a specific focus: fundraising, digital communications, and outreach to Sierra Club members. Other highlights this year include:

• 15 out of 29 victories in contested races
• 20+ volunteers in leadership roles
• $2,400+ raised the coordinated Chapter PAC
• 5 interns trained and deployed

2020 State Primary Recap

The biggest highlight of the night was the re-election of Senator Ed Markey who successfully fended off a fierce challenge from Representative Joe Kennedy. Markey pulled together an unprecedented coalition of youth activists, including the Sunrise Movement. His political identity, even more so than before, is tied to the Green New Deal.

Overall, September 1st was a night for incumbent victories. Statewide only two incumbents were defeated in Democratic primaries: Jim Welch (Hampden Senate) and David Nangle (17th Middlesex House). In the case of Welch, our endorsed candidate, Adam Gomez won. Nangle, who is currently facing federal charges for fraud, lost a three-way race to Vanna Howard. Lisa Arnold, the Sierra Club-endorsed candidate in the race, lost.

However, Sierra Club-endorsed candidates also won in five open seat races. Adam Scanlon (14th Bristol House), Erika Uyterhoeven (27th Middlesex House), Steve Owens (29th Middlesex House), and Brandy Fluker Oakley (12th Suffolk House) do not have an opponent in November and will be sworn in in 2021. Meg Kilcoyne (12th Worcester House) faces a Republican

This election happened under unprecedented circumstances that certainly impacted the viability of many of our endorsed candidates. There were five main factors that combined to make the political landscape especially challenging for challengers and first-time candidates.

1. The COVID-19 pandemic created a number of unexpected issues. For example, candidates like Jordan Meehan, who declared early in 2020, sought to leverage grassroots power by activating younger voters and renters. In these races, campaigns were unable to use typical door-to-door tactics and relied instead on less effective phone banking, literature drops, and mailers.
2. Turnout exceeded all expectations, likely due to both the push for vote-by-mail and the energy around the Markey-Kennedy race. At the time of writing, official estimates are as high as 1.5 million, very likely an all-time state record for a primary election. In the Allston/Brighton State Rep District in 2018 there were 4,513 voters. This year 7,858 people voted. That's a more than a 40% increase in one election cycle.
3. Both high turnout and unavailability of typical in-person campaign tactics both served to compound the advantage of incumbency. High turnout meets that more "low information voters" cast ballots. These are folks who are less likely to pay attention to local races and tend towards incumbents (who generally have higher name recognition). In the case of the Allston/Brighton race, one of the polling locations was actually named after Jordan’s opponent
4. Additionally, opposing forces worked hard to protect incumbents in many key races.  The Massachusetts Majority PAC, an entity affiliated with Charlie Baker, "spent $154,687 in August backing 22 candidates – 18 Democrats and four Republicans, mostly for state legislative seats. Nineteen of the PAC’s candidates won, including three Democrats and two Republicans who were running for open House seats, according to official and unofficial returns." (source: Commonwealth Magazine)
5. Lastly, the decision to make September 1st election day created confusion for renters moving on that day. Many who moved that day were unclear if they were supposed to vote in their old district or their new one.

We knew that each of these races were going to be an uphill battle--even Markey was polling behind Kennedy less than a year ago. Challenging the power structure is never easy and every win, even a small one, is significant. There’s lots to learn from this election and lots of places for us to grow for next time. For now, let's rest, regroup, and refocus on what’s to come in November.

Race-by-Race Results

September 1st State Primary

*incumbent

2020 Municipal & Special Elections