Photo courtesy of EV Hybrid Noire
In the first blog of our two-part series on the factors behind the acceleration of electric vehicle (EV) adoption in the U.S., we looked back on how we reached the important milestone of 1 million EVs sold in the U.S. EV momentum has grown since the first mass-market EVs were introduced in 2010. The factors we cited included proliferation of public charging stations, major increase in number of plug-in models on the market, public outreach and tax credits and rebates. However, we still need bold and swift action in other ways if we are to create a 100% zero-emission transportation future and reach our climate goals. In this piece, we explore a few of the biggest factors that we anticipate will drive the EV market in 2019 and beyond:
The Sunset of ZEV Mandate Travel Provision
Under the California zero emission vehicle (ZEV) rule, ZEVs must make up a certain percentage of total car sales each year. Nine states outside of California have adopted the ZEV mandate: Oregon, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Maine, Rhode Island, Vermont, Massachusetts and Maryland. Yet, for a long time, carmakers still were not compelled to sell EVs in states outside California due to the "travel provision” loophole. It allowed carmakers to sell EVs in any state that adopted the ZEV rule and so chose to focus a hugely disproportionate amount of the sales in California. After the sunset of the travel provision at the end of 2017, we're starting to see significantly increased ZEV sales in ZEV states like Maryland and New Jersey.
Improved and Less Expensive Batteries
The cost of batteries for electric cars, trucks, and buses has been steadily dropping over the past few years. Between 2014 to 2016, battery costs fell over 50%, bringing EVs much closer to parity with costs of internal-cumbustion vehicles. EVs are forecast to cost the same or less than a comparable internal-combustion engine vehicle (ICE car) when the price of battery packs falls to between $125 and $150 per kWh. According to the Union of Concerned Scientists, studies show battery prices are expected to drop as little as $73/kWh by 2030. As a continued drop in battery prices allows manufacturers to reduce the prices of EVs, they will soon become comparable in price to ICE cars. Additionally, manufacturers have been producing EV cars that go well beyond 200 miles per charge and EV buses that go more than 200 miles, and innovative technology will lengthen those mileage ranges in the short-term. These lower prices and longer ranges will make EVs even more attractive.
Electric Car-Sharing and Hailing
Car sharing and ride-hailing are growing rapidly, especially in urban areas as more people forego the hassle and expense of owning a car. As Lyft and Uber offer more EVs for their ride-hailing clients, and EV car-sharing programs expand with Envoy, Blue L.A., Waive, and Maven (just to name a few), they’re pushing cities to expand charging infrastructure and help introduce future car buyers to EVs. EV car-sharing can produce many benefits for drivers and our communities, such as reductions in emissions, congestion, parking demand, travel costs and time.
Electrification of Transit & School Buses
Transit buses emit a high amount of harmful emissions, and low-income neighborhoods and communities of color that often rely on transit and reside near transit bus centers are disproportionately impacted. Fortunately, electric transit buses are a fast growing segment of the EV market. More than 60 transit agencies are demonstrating or deploying electric buses — about 1,000 already are in operation or on order. Cities such as Los Angeles and New York City have committed to more than 9,000 for future use. Additionally, new models of electric school buses are hitting the market.Removing fossil fuels from mass transit and for school kids goes far in reducing our carbon footprint, which is inspiring city officials, utilities, and states determining how to spend VW settlement funds to make electrification of transit and school  buses a top priority.
The transportation sector is the largest contributor of greenhouse gas emissions, eclipsing electricity, yet the Trump administration is attempting to weaken fuel efficiency standards that would push automakers to expand their more fuel efficient and EV fleets. As we realize our window of time to get climate change under control narrows, it’s more important than ever that we act swiftly and boldly for a clean, electric mobility future for all.