Florida’s black bears were removed from the state’s threatened species list in 2012 after decades of recovery — but new data from the Osceola National Forest suggest that progress may be slipping away.
According to preliminary estimates shared by FWC researchers, bear density in the Osceola region has dropped from roughly 0.12 bears per square kilometer in 2014 to just 0.04 in 2024 — a decline of nearly two-thirds over ten years. That’s roughly a fall from about 100 bears to 33 across this forested region of North Florida.
This isn’t just a local concern. It’s a warning signal for the health of all Bear Management Units (BMUs) across the state. The Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission (FWC) uses population models to set harvest quotas, but those models are now based on data collected a decade ago — and the Osceola numbers show that the real world is diverging sharply from their projections.
A Flawed Model Meets a Changing Reality
FWC’s own Bear Management Unit Population Model Report (2017) assumed stable or growing bear numbers under “sustainable harvest” scenarios. The report used matrix population models to simulate growth over twelve-year intervals, based on constant adult survival rates and balanced harvest across female age groups.
But as the report itself warned, if real-world survival or reproduction declined, those models could overestimate sustainability. Today, that warning is coming true. The steep decline in Osceola — one of Florida’s most forested and least developed BMUs — suggests that statewide bear populations are far more vulnerable than the models indicated.
Why Osceola Matters
The Osceola Bear Management Unit functions as a bellwether. If a core forest population with relatively intact habitat has lost two-thirds of its density in a decade, the outlook for smaller, more fragmented BMUs — such as those in the Central and East Panhandle regions — could be even worse.
Yet FWC has not completed updated DNA-based population estimates for the remaining BMUs. In other words, the state is flying blind even as it moves toward authorizing a new bear hunt — the first since 2015, when more than 300 bears were killed in just two days, including lactating females whose cubs were left orphaned.
Science and logic both dictate restraint. No new hunts should be approved until updated, peer-reviewed abundance data are available for every BMU. Anything less would repeat the same mistakes that led to the disastrous 2015 season.
📣 What You Can Do
Sierra Club Florida is joining conservation partners across the state to call on Governor Ron DeSantis to stop the proposed hunt and reform the FWC appointment process so that qualified scientists — not political donors — guide wildlife policy.
Take Action:
📞 Call the Governor: (850) 717-9337
📧 Email: GovernorRon.DeSantis@eog.myflorida.com
Urge him to pause all bear hunts until new population data are complete and reviewed by independent scientists.
🐻 Join the Rally!
Rally to Stop Florida’s Black Bear Hunt – Ride the Bear Bus to Tallahassee
🗓️ Monday, November 17 | 11:00 AM – 1:00 PM
📍 Florida State Capitol, 400 S Monroe St, Tallahassee
✍🏽 Sign Up Here to ride the Bear Bus
Bus & Travel Details:
All buses are round-trip, free of charge, and equipped with restrooms, Wi-Fi, outlets, and complimentary snacks and refreshments.
All riders must be active Sierra Club members — not a member? Click here to join!
Pickup locations: Tampa Bay/Brooksville • Daytona/Jacksonville • Orlando/Gainesville
🕕 Pickup times: 5:30–8:00 AM | Departure from Tallahassee: 3:00 PM
Exact pickup details will be provided after verification.
👉 RSVP by November 11
The Takeaway
The Osceola data are not just numbers — they’re a signal flare from Florida’s wildlands. If we ignore it, we risk unraveling years of recovery for one of our state’s most iconic species. It’s time to stand with science, stand for the bears, and make sure “management” once again means protection.