Tilley's Track
by Prof Allen Tilley
Disclaimer: The material in this section is not necessarily the policy of the Sierra Club. The referenced materials are the responsibility of the publishers/writers and Mr. Tilley’s analysis is intended to provoke thought and action, but not necessarily endorsed.
Sent 7/22
1. Kamala Harris’s record of climate action deserves to be more widely known. Her 4-minute summary address at COP 28 last year is worth a watch. https://thinc.blog/2024/07/22/kamala-on-climate/
2. Grist takes a closer look at Kamala Harris’s early record on climate. The emphasis is on soft spots in a strong and continuing effort. https://grist.org/politics/what-would-a-kamala-harris-presidency-mean-for-the-climate/
3. ABC highlights the Vice President’s recent positions. https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/kamala-harris-stands-green-new-deal-climate-initiatives/story?id=112152079
Sent 6/15
1. A Harvard group has published a study of the planetary health diet based on records of more than 200,000 women and men over a period of up to 34 years. https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/press-releases/planetary-health-diet-associated-with-lower-risk-of-premature-death-lower-environmental-impact/
The new study, “Planetary Health Diet Index and risk of total and cause-specific mortality in three prospective cohorts,” appeared in the American Journal of Clinical Nutrition June 10, 2024. https://ajcn.nutrition.org/article/S0002-9165(24)00389-7/abstract The team divided the subjects into quintiles by the degree to which their reported diet conformed to the planetary health diet, a regimen first described in a Lancet article in 2019. The diet is meant to serve two purposes: to control agricultural emissions so as to make possible the goals of the Paris Accords, and to promote global health with a diet flexible enough to adapt to the broadest possible range of cultural and social contexts.
“The study found that the risk of premature death was 30% lower in the top 10% of participants most closely adhering to PHD compared to those in the lowest 10%. Every major cause of death, including cancer, heart disease, and lung disease, was lower with greater adherence to this dietary pattern.
“In addition, the researchers found that those with the highest adherence to the PHD had a substantially lower environmental impact than those with the lowest adherence, including 29% lower greenhouse gas emissions, 21% lower fertilizer needs, and 51% lower cropland use.
“The researchers noted that land use reduction is particularly important as a facilitator of re-forestation, which is seen as an effective way to further reduce levels of greenhouse gases that are driving climate change.” (From Harvard’s press release)
2. Peter Sinclair quotes a Washington Post article on the Harvard study in conjunction with the 50th anniversary edition of Diet for a Small Planet, which has text and recipes adjusted to planetary health. https://thinc.blog/2024/06/14/diet-for-a-small-planet-hey-that-could-be-a-title-for-a-book-about-oh-wait/
3. Livestock emissions are often trivialized as the methane burped by cows, cleverly controlled by seaweed in their feed. That is a small part of the picture. A Harvard study, Options for a Paris-Compliant Livestock Sector, found that cutting meat consumption is the best way to reduce the 11-20% of emissions which come from livestock farming. https://animal.law.harvard.edu/wp-content/uploads/Paris-compliant-livestock-report.pdf (March, 2024)
“To have any hope of meeting the central goal of the Paris Agreement, which is to limit global warming to 2°C or less, our carbon emissions must be reduced considerably, including those coming from agriculture. Clark et al. show that even if fossil fuel emissions were eliminated immediately, emissions from the global food system alone would make it impossible to limit warming to 1.5°C and difficult even to realize the 2°C target. Thus, major changes in how food is produced are needed if we want to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement.” Science, 6 November 2020. https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aba7357
The current consumption of meat is inconsistent with a livable future. Among livestock, beef is the greatest emissions source by far. Our diet accounts for as much emissions as air and ocean travel combined. Just as we cannot finally ignore air and ocean travel, we cannot achieve reasonable climate goals unless we control our diets. The fact that we will also be serving our health (and that the diet is easier, cheaper, at least as satisfying, and more fun) is as significant to this part of the climate challenge as the superiority of electric vehicles to those of the internal combustion engine (faster, cheaper, sturdier, quieter, and more fun all around).
We can promote the transition to renewable energy through regulation. The transition to a new diet, however, is probably beyond the power of the government to enforce. We must see the need to change our diet, and we must ourselves carry through the change.
I am now putting out this news list only when I think a truly significant issue or development is not being addressed widely enough. I do not believe we generally discuss dietary change as crucial, though it is. Of the things we can do, it is the most likely to make a difference, more significant than an electric car or a solar array on our roof. Only the general vote is in real competition for impact.
4. Food industry lobbyists tripled at COP 28. The industry regards the COP as a success in that it failed to address the need to reduce meat and dairy. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/apr/08/us-meat-lobby-delighted-at-positive-prospects-for-industry-after-cop28
5. Even so, COP 28 indicates that we are beginning to move in the necessary direction. COP 28 adopted a roadmap on agriculture which leads to country-specific plans at COP 30 in 2025. The goal is to have a just and equitable food system providing a healthy diet accessible to all, eliminating chronic hunger and cutting gross greenhouse gas emissions 25% by 2030. Agrifood systems are intended to become a net carbon sink by 2050. The program is intended to support limiting global heating to 1.5C. https://www.fao.org/interactive/sdg2-roadmap/en/
The Guardian reports on this first move at the COPs to deal with agriculture. By the end of the conference more than 150 countries had signed the agreement to make food and agricultural policy part of their efforts to deal with climate. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/17/cop28-sustainable-agriculture-food-greenhouse-gases
Finally, it is up to us. We do not need to be vegans, though they are something like elite troops in this battle. The rest of us simply need to follow a plant-based diet with a little meat and dairy. The WA Post article linked in item 2 reports Walter Willet’s account of the Planetary Health Diet. Willett was the lead author of the original Lancet article and a senior author of the new study.
“He described it as an omnivorous diet that makes room for two servings a day of animal foods. A typical week on the diet, for example, might include one daily serving of dairy such as milk, cheese, or yogurt, a weekly serving of red meat, one weekly serving of eggs, two weekly servings of poultry, and two weekly servings of fish.
“The diet prioritizes generous amounts of fruits, nuts and vegetables and a variety of plant sources of protein such as beans, lentils and other legumes, which makes it relatively easy to follow, Willett said.”
Sent 5/9
1. Untaxed externalities such as damages from leaky old oil and gas wells and from newly intense rainfall due to temperature increases represent costs of fossil fuels which are passed on to the public at large. Such costs constitute about 25% of the profits of US corporations. Vermont is passing a law to require firms doing business in the state to assume the full costs of their operations (which would then be represented in the prices of their products). The price of gasoline, for example, would then reflect its true cost, and methane would be as expensive as it really is. Other states, including New York, Maryland, and Massachusetts, are discussing following suit. https://cleantechnica.com/2024/05/08/the-power-of-taxing-untaxed-externalities/
See the comments to Steve Hanley’s article for information on Canada’s carbon tax, which taxes the externalities.
The Guardian goes into much more detail about the Vermont initiative and similar efforts in other states. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/may/09/vermont-charge-oil-industry-climate-crisis?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
2. I promised to keep an eye on SeaChange, which uses a process developed at UCLA of removing and sequestering carbon from sea water. It is now called Equatic and being pursued in Singapore in a large facility planned to become operational in 2025. It remains among the most promising ways to reverse the accumulation of carbon in the environment. https://time.com/6836259/singapore-equatic-ocean-carbon-dioxide-removal-facility-largest/
Boeing has just signed a five-year agreement with Equatic to remove 62,000 tons of carbon and supply green hydrogen, a by-product of the process. https://www.forbes.com/sites/alanohnsman/2023/05/31/boeing-bets-on-startup-equatic-with-massive-co2-removal-hydrogen-deal/?sh=1d72414b17f9
This article from last year supplies more information on Equatic’s process. https://www.equatic.tech/articles/an-l-a-startup-aims-to-turn-the-oceans-into-a-co2-sponge-and-green-hydrogen-machine
Sent 4/9
1. The Antarctic is experiencing a series of unprecedented rises in temperature. If those continue past August we will have entered a new and dangerous state of the climate. The rate of sea level rise will increase. Another effect of the rise is to diminish the algae which grow around and under the floating ice shelves. They are food for the krill, which deposit their bodies and the CO2 they carry on the ocean floor. The un-sequestered CO2 will now remain in the air, and the animals who eat the krill will decline as their food supply diminishes. Our climate models have been based on slender data from the Antarctic already and now may require revision if Antarctica continues to surprise us. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/apr/06/simply-mind-boggling-world-record-temperature-jump-in-antarctic-raises-fears-of-catastrophe
2. General Motors is in talks with Chinese battery manufacturer CATL to build plants in the US or Mexico to produce their LFP (lithium iron phosphate) battery. Ford has already announced a $3.5 billion investment in a similar plant in Michigan. The LFP battery is cheaper, safer, and much longer lasting than current lithium batteries. LFP batteries use no cobalt or other rare materials. https://electrek.co/2024/03/28/gm-catl-in-talks-cheaper-lfp-battery-tech-joint-plant/
CATL has announced that they will manufacture an LFP battery which will last for almost a million miles and carries a 15-year warranty. The battery is intended for commercial vehicles such as buses and trucks. https://electrek.co/2024/04/03/catl-launches-new-ev-battery-last-1-million-miles-15-yrs/