From the April - June 2022 Jersey Sierran
By George Moffatt, gmoffattgt@aol.com
A tidal wave of electric vehicles (EVs) is heading our way, but will they reduce overall carbon emissions and other pollutants? It’s complicated.
In 2020, there were some 276 million registered vehicles in the United States. About 1.4 million were EVs and 5.4 million, hybrids. However, last year EV sales were about 9% of global car sales, and although estimates of global EV passenger vehicle sales by 2030 vary widely (18% to 48% of total sales), sales clearly are expected to grow rapidly.
Before the pandemic, US residents drove an average of 13,476 miles a year, with New Jersey drivers averaging 8,300 miles, according to federal highway data. The national daily average, therefore, is just 37 miles, which means that for many drivers EVs are a suitable option, since they get an average of 250 miles per charge.
Prospective EV owners should not be concerned about running out of electrons on the highway. Consumer Reports has estimated the average EV owner can charge at home 92% of the time and would need charging stations just six times a year.
President Biden has pledged to create 500,000 charging stations (not locations), although Congress gave him just half the money he requested for this. Last year, the US Department of Energy awarded $127 million in contracts under the SuperTruck 3 initiative to develop battery and fuel cell technology for truck transport.
Meanwhile, several states have acted to ban the sale of gasoline-powered vehicles by 2035: New York, Massachusetts, and California. The NJ Department of Environmental Protection has recommended we do likewise.
Understanding the Problem
So, what’s the problem? As usual, it’s us. We’re not buying the right vehicles.
The average gas mileage of combustion sedans grew from 25.3 mpg in 2009 to 30.9 mpg in 2019—a 22% increase. That’s somewhat impressive—about half of the Obama administration’s target of 54.5 mpg by 2025. However, when you include the current sales of popular gas-guzzling SUVs and pickups, that average gas mileage increase was just 11% (22.4 mpg vs 24.9 mpg, respectively).
About 10 years ago, combustion sedans outsold the gas-thirstier SUVs by two to one; but by 2019, the now luxurious SUVs were outselling sedans two to one, offsetting the fuel improvements of both combustion sedans and EVs. In effect, sales of SUVs and trucks are slowing down our fuel improvement gains.
Longevity is another factor. In 2020, the average age of vehicles on US roads was a record 12.1 years, helped along by the pandemic and the drop in new car sales. Also, newer technology and the low production of EVs contributes to higher prices that are not competitive with what we pay for gasoline-powered vehicles.
Then there are environmental concerns.
EVs’ lithium-ion batteries are long-lasting, but still pose environmental concerns. For one thing, lithium is a highly reactive, flammable substance. Last year, General Motors recalled 130,000 Chevy Bolt EVs because of battery fire risk.
Also, the growing need for lithium and other raw materials is already creating social and environmental problems. Lithium is mined in open pits or extracted from brine pools, and enormous quantities of water are used, creating potential for groundwater contamination. There is also intense pressure to ramp up lithium production quickly. Adequate pollution and safety controls may be absent.
Emissions From Charging
Another issue is higher emissions from fossil-fuel plants as more EVs need charging. “If every American switched over to an electric passenger vehicle…the United States could end up using roughly 25% more electricity,” The New York Times reported in 2021. Authors of a recent Yale study stated that, even factoring in emissions from electricity generation, EV emissions would be lower than for gasoline-powered vehicles.
On the bright side, fossil-fuel plant closings and the increased use of wind and solar power are expected to improve the environmental impacts.
Then there are the economic and supply problems. Chinese companies are among the most aggressive of buyers seeking to control supplies of lithium and other key minerals. According to the 2021 BP Statistical Review, China has 7.9% of the world’s lithium reserves. China also controls roughly 60% of global capacity to process raw lithium; 65%, cobalt; and 35%, nickel.
But let’s close on promising news. One immediate promise of EVs is, of course, cleaner air for everyone. Another is that EV owners may save from $6,000 to $10,000 in maintenance and other costs over the life of the vehicle. The average price of an EV is about $56,000, with the powertrain (eg, batteries) amounting to 51% of the cost. But battery re-use and new battery chemistries, manufacturing techniques, packaging, sales volume and expanded use of wind power and commercial and residential solar for power will continue driving down EVs’ overall costs.
And certainly, EV owners with residential solar panels will be well ahead in the game. So, isn’t it about time to trade in your DeSoto?